Brookings outlines aggressive immigration agenda if Trump returns to the White House
Key Takeaways
- Brookings analysis anticipates sweeping executive actions to restrict asylum, expand removals, and curtail humanitarian parole in a second Trump administration.
- Tools likely to be used include INA 212(f) entry suspensions, nationwide expedited removal, revived “Remain in Mexico,” and broader 287(g) local police partnerships.
- Programs at risk could include DACA renewals, several Temporary Protected Status (TPS) designations, the CHNV and Uniting for Ukraine parole programs, and refugee admissions.
- Interior enforcement would intensify, with heightened worksite actions, possible E‑Verify expansion efforts, and tighter adjudications for employment visas like H‑1B.
- Litigation and state/federal pushback would be immediate and consequential, injecting uncertainty and delays for migrants, employers, and families.
What Brookings expects
The Brookings Institution assesses that a second Trump administration would prioritize rapid, unilateral shifts in immigration policy—leaning heavily on executive power rather than new legislation. Expect a focus on detaining and removing recent border crossers, cutting humanitarian pathways, and reviving policies from 2017–2020. The analysis notes potential attempts to restrict asylum access at the southern border and to scale back humanitarian parole programs created or expanded under President Biden. While campaign rhetoric has included ending birthright citizenship, any such move would almost certainly face swift court challenges given long-standing Supreme Court precedent.
The legal levers and likely moves
Brookings points to an anticipated reliance on well-tested authorities. Section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) allows the president to suspend entry of certain noncitizens; it was used in prior travel bans. Section 235 enables expedited removal far from the border, which could be expanded nationwide. The administration could try to reinstate the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP or “Remain in Mexico”) under INA 235(b)(2)(C), tighten “credible fear” screenings for asylum, and resurrect transit bans via regulation. DHS (Department of Homeland Security) could widen 287(g) agreements deputizing local police for immigration enforcement and step up interior operations by ICE (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement), while USCIS (U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services) could adopt stricter adjudication policies that slow processing. The State Department could also apply added vetting at consulates, affecting visa issuance.
Who would be affected
Humanitarian migrants could feel the sharpest effects. Brookings flags likely efforts to end or narrow parole initiatives such as CHNV (Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, Venezuela) and Uniting for Ukraine, reduce work authorization tied to parole, and lower the annual refugee ceiling. DACA, already limited to renewals by court order, could face renewed termination attempts, and several TPS designations could be wound down, pending litigation. Employment-based immigrants and temporary workers may encounter tougher H‑1B scrutiny, wage and compliance crackdowns, and narrower use of waivers—changes employers say would slow hiring and complicate workforce planning. Family-based applicants could see longer timelines if in-person interviews and “extreme vetting” return; under the last Trump term, processing times grew as screening expanded.
What applicants and employers should do now
For people in the system today, the immediate takeaway is uncertainty. Brookings underscores that many moves would trigger lawsuits, creating whiplash as policies are rolled out, blocked, or revised. Applicants with time-sensitive filings should consider accelerating submissions—especially for renewals of status, work permits, or parole—given the risk of narrowed eligibility or slower processing under stricter screening. Employers relying on H‑1B, L‑1, or seasonal visas should prepare for higher documentation burdens and potential delays at USCIS and consulates. Refugee sponsors and humanitarian parole supporters should anticipate policy shifts and maintain contingency plans. While USCIS’s 2024 fee schedule is already in effect, further fee or policy changes could emerge over time; monitoring agency announcements and court orders will be essential.
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